Cobalt product prices showed mixed performance, refined cobalt smelters continued to stand firm on quotes. How is the downstream sentiment? [Weekly Observation]

SMM March 28 News: This week, cobalt product prices showed mixed performance, with the cobalt export ban still affecting the market. Refined cobalt smelters continued to stand firm on quotes, and traders' trading enthusiasm improved compared to before. Meanwhile, some cobalt salt smelters' quotations began to stabilize, but the current high prices still limit downstream transactions to some extent... SMM compiled the price changes of cobalt products this week, as follows:

Refined cobalt: According to SMM spot price quotations, although the spot price of refined cobalt pulled back on the last trading day, the overall quotation still showed an upward trend this week. As of March 28, the spot price of refined cobalt was quoted at 235,000-254,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 244,500 yuan/mt, up 1,000 yuan/mt from 243,500 yuan/mt on March 21, an increase of 0.41%. According to SMM survey, supply side, refined cobalt smelters continued to stand firm on quotes; demand side, downstream producers have basically completed their monthly procurement, and market inquiries and buying remain slightly weak, but traders' trading enthusiasm improved WoW. In the short term, supply and demand are unlikely to change, and the spot price of refined cobalt is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Cobalt salts (cobalt sulphate and cobalt chloride): According to SMM spot price quotations, the spot price of cobalt sulphate continued to rise this week. As of March 28, the spot price of cobalt sulphate was quoted at 48,500-51,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 49,750 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt from March 21, an increase of 0.2%. According to SMM survey, supply side, upstream salt producers' quotations were basically flat WoW and continued to stand firm on quotes, with some salt producers releasing small batches of goods; downstream enterprises' concentrated procurement has come to an end, and inquiries and buying are currently weak, with expected price spreads still existing, and market liquidity has not improved significantly. In the short term, the market is expected to continue a "weak balance" fluctuating trend, and the spot price of cobalt sulphate is likely to fluctuate upward. For cobalt chloride, according to SMM spot price quotations, the spot price of cobalt chloride rose to 58,700-60,100 yuan/mt as of March 28, with an average price of 59,400 yuan/mt, showing a slight rebound in the latter half of the week. According to SMM survey, supply side, the market is gradually becoming rational, and cobalt chloride producers are no longer adhering to the strategy of not selling, with their willingness to sell increasing; demand side, the main purchasers of Co3O4 remain in a wait-and-see attitude, and although the number of inquiries has increased, actual trading volume remains limited. Looking ahead, the market will still be affected by the cobalt export ban, and panic sentiment may persist. Some producers may choose to maintain current prices and adopt a strategy of holding back sales, which may lead to further price increases for cobalt chloride.

Co3O4: According to SMM spot price quotations, the spot price of Co3O4 dropped back slightly this week. As of March 28, the spot price of Co3O4 fell to 202,000-220,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 211,250 yuan/mt, down 1,250 yuan/mt from March 21, a decrease of 0.59%. According to SMM survey, supply side, most smelters' quotations have stabilized, and the market is gradually returning to rationality; demand side, most producers have completed their procurement earlier, so new orders this week are few, market acceptance of high prices has decreased, activity has weakened, and a buffer period has been entered. In the short term, the price of Co3O4 is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but due to weak purchase willingness from downstream LCO producers and some resistance sentiment, prices may continue to decline next week.

On the news front, on March 21 local time, DRC government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya stated that the country may extend the export ban issued last month. Muyaya mentioned that since the country decided to suspend exports, cobalt prices have risen by more than 50%, and maintaining the cobalt export ban may be necessary. Muyaya cited President Felix Tshisekedi's statement that the DRC will evaluate when the ban expires to decide whether to extend the ban or take new measures to maintain market stability. Earlier this week, DRC Prime Minister Judith Tuluka Suminwa announced that the country plans to implement export quotas for cobalt, divided into two parts, one focusing on exports and the other on local mineral conversion. However, some traders commented that cobalt prices are indeed rising due to the DRC's export ban, but this may also prompt OEMs to further push their labs to remove cobalt from batteries. For example, European OEMs stated that overall, a four-month ban is short, but such intervention measures reduce the market's demand for cobalt and the entire battery raw material industry's dependence on the region.

In addition, according to Mining.com, the EU has released the first list of strategic projects to advance the local mining, processing, and recycling of materials critical to the energy transition and security, involving 14 of the 17 strategic materials. The strategic materials involved in the projects include aluminum, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, boron, and graphite.

In terms of corporate dynamics, due to the recent continuous rise in cobalt prices, which has also driven the prices of other products in the industry chain, according to Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd., Zhangyuan Tungsten issued a notice on March 26 regarding the adjustment of product prices: due to the increase in the price of cobalt powder and other materials, the company's production costs have significantly increased. The company has decided to implement new prices for some cemented carbide and hardfacing materials products from April 1, 2025 (specific business please contact the company's sales personnel). From the date of the price adjustment, products will be executed at the new prices.